Confirmation Bias Is One Reason Why Facts Don't Move Us
And one reason why we spread Fake News.
The comic above on ‘confirmation bias’ is by Nik Papageorgiou, a cell biologist who publishes them on his website The Upturned Microscope. His takes are usually centered around science and research and they’re pretty funny. You might want to check them out.
However, if you think about it, is the scene above really about confirmation bias or any other kind of bias? Sure, it shows a bearded guy who is unscrupulous. But bias is a hidden prejudice, as I wrote in the last post, and these folks in the comic are openly manipulating their research.
And anyway, what really is confirmation bias? And why should we care?
Consider this tweet:
Now think about your reaction to it.
I’m willing to bet that your reaction to the tweet came from your beliefs about Modi and his abilities as Prime Minister of India.
Those who believe that the current administration is focusing more on the Prime Minister’s image than on the actual standoff between India and China might have got the larger point of Varma’s tweet.
Those who believe strongly that Modi can do no wrong might have gotten angry at the very first sentence of the tweet, “Modi doesn’t need to control the border” and missed the larger point. Varma isn’t actually saying, “don’t control the border”. Rather, he is saying that the government seems to have attached more importance to maintaining Modi’s image as a capable leader than actually focusing on his handling of the crisis. Varma is also saying that reality will force Modi to stop focusing on image and ‘spin’… but that it will take some more time.
You reaction to the tweet is likely to be a result of confirmation bias.
According to Raymond S Nickerson, an academic at Tufts University, confirmation bias is “the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information that confirms or supports one's prior personal beliefs or values.”
There is another name for confirmation bias—“myside bias”, which some academics prefer.
Now Varma’s tweet is, in the end, an opinion. What happens when people are confronted with facts?
Pretty much the same thing, as innumerable experiments at universities have found out. People believe what they want, even if their beliefs are not grounded in facts. So entrenched is this phenomenon is that if you were to confront people with evidence that shows their belief is wrong, they might well conclude that you are biased yourself. This is known as the ‘backfire effect’.
Exercise: Confirmation bias in WhatsApp groups
A great place to find myside bias or confirmation bias are the groups on WhatsApp. Whether you like it or not, you probably get toxic messages, jokes (that aren’t really jokes), exhortations of various types and seemingly harmless stuff coming your way.
If you find yourself reacting strongly—either positively or negatively—to some messages, that’s a clue. Examine what your beliefs say about how you feel and then think about how people who believe the opposite of you will react to the message.
For example, here’s an image I received a few months ago:
What was your first, instinctive reaction?
My first reaction was irritation. This feeling was not particularly directed at the image or the contents of the image. Rather, my irritation was at the context of the image, coming as it did on the back of hundreds (if not thousands) of such images, all of them seeking to divide Hindus and Muslims. (For those who’re new to Indian politics, the Mughals were Muslim rulers, and all the other empires were led by Hindu kings. Hindus are the overwhelming majority in India today.)
My second reaction was pride. The images reminded me of India’s glorious history, dating back thousands of years.
My third reaction was exasperation. The last line is: “but all we learned in history was how great the Mughals were.” Which is a lie. The agenda of the creators and sharers of the image is clear— which is to foster a sense of grievance among Hindus…using lies. At school, both in ICSE and Karnataka State Board, I, like probably every other child in India, learnt about several great dynasties, including those that aren’t in this image. (That’s where my sense of pride comes from, because I learnt it in school.)
Clearly then, the agenda of this post is to remind Hindus of “minority appeasement” and foster anger.
My fourth reaction was anger. I have strong feelings about my heritage, and I don’t need anyone to remind me of what ancient India achieved. At the same time, I feel I should be free to examine what to feel proud of, and what to regret about in our past. But this politicization of history and weaponization of grievances has shattered this process.
And finally, my fifth reaction was to double check the number for one of them. The Mauryan empire lasted about 137 years, and not 550 years as claimed. Still, there might be some nuances and you might get different figures if you count differently. Still, there’s a huge gap between 137 years and 550 years.
I left it at that. Because this exercise is not a fact-checking one, but about confirmation bias.
So where do my confirmation biases fit in here? I think you will find that when you think deliberately about your own thinking, biases have a way of disappearing. Having thought about biases for several years, I tend to believe that I can spot mine.
But if you do spot anything, write in the comments section and we can have a discussion, either in public or in private.
Confirmation bias and fake news
A large part of our ‘fake news’ problem is due to confirmation bias. When lies, hate speech and propaganda flood our messaging groups and social media feeds, they exploit our grievances and fears. We then feel compelled to react to them via comments, likes and shares, thus fuelling the problem.
I probably could have chosen better examples. For example, I didn’t need to start with the comic that is ostensibly about confirmation bias, but actually isn’t. I could have used a tweet that was less confusing. And so on.
But that is precisely the point. This stuff we deal with on a daily and hourly basis is always confusing, even for experts.
The only way to deal with every single message we receive as individuals is to reflect, reflect, and reflect.
Please consider sharing this post and starting a conversation with me and others on this topic.